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Scoop up these 7 cars before they take off


March 5, 2019


 

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As much as we'd like to have the power to predict the future, we can't. Our best course of action, however, is to rely on data that indicates what's most likely to occur down the road. Nobody likes the feeling of missing the boat.

With the right information from Hagerty—insurance quote data, the frequency in which cars are added to policies, auction activity, and more—we can start to paint a picture of when prices for a particular model are on the verge of ticking up. After crunching the numbers, here are the seven cars that are overdue for a price bump.

1985-89 Ferrari 328 GTB/GTS
1988 Ferrari 328 GTS, RM Sotheby's
Median value for cars in #3 (Good) condition: $57,350

These cars essentially doubled in value since the early 2000s. Still, any “affordable” Ferraris can be a dangerous trap—the repair bills for a beat-up example could equal half what you paid. That reality makes any “cheap” Ferrari a difficult investment, even if the car appreciates 25 percent in a reasonable time span.

Twelve-month average auction sale prices for the 328 GTB/GTS peaked in August 2016 at $116,078. Today, that figure is down 31 percent to $80,592—equal to four years ago. It’s possible that buyers who were previously priced out 3–4 years ago can now get back in the game. Quote activity was up 11 percent in the final three months of 2018, which is a good sign for current demand, and quote value was up 3.8 percent in that period.

1991-95 Alfa Romeo Spider S4
1992 Alfa Romeo Spider, Mecum
Median value for cars in #3 (Good) condition: $16,700

Young buyers don’t seem to love the Spider S4, with 76 percent of quotes coming from Boomers and Pre-Boomers over the last 12-months, but that doesn’t mean it is doomed.

Spiders are being added to insurance policies at an increasing rate—between January ’18 and Jan ’19 the number added to policies increased 38 percent. Meanwhile, the average sale price at auction over this period increased 19 percent. The average quoted value of the car has been very consistent over the last 10 years, ranging only from $12,800–$15,800. It’s fair to say that these roadsters are due for value appreciation, after many years of chugging along in the background.

1968-71 Mercury Cyclone
1968 Mercury Cyclone, Mecum
Median value for cars in #3 (Good) condition: $16,200
 
Surprisingly, 85 percent more Mercury Cyclones were added to policies in this past year than in the one prior, and the quoted values were up 33 percent over the same period. Additionally, the average auction sale price over the last 12 months is up 37 percent compared to the previous year. The median #2-condition value has remained unchanged for the last four years, which is a good indicator of stability.

1949-67 VW Beetle
1973 Volkswagen Beetle, Hagerty
Median value for cars in #3 (Good) condition: $14,900
 
Amongst cars with 100 or more annual quotes from Gen X and Millennials, the 1949–67 Beetle is the only vehicle generation from the ’40s or ’50s with more than 60 percent of quotes coming from these younger demographics.

When Hagerty updated prices last September, median prices for #2 (Excellent) cars increased 26 percent. As those price creeps past the point where buyers are willing to throw money around, and big sales start happening more frequently, expect Excellent-condition cars to become more desirable than ever before.

1968-72 Oldsmobile Cutlass
1972 Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme, Mecum
Median value for cars in #3 (Good) condition: $12,850
 
The Cutlass is tracking in the middle of the road for quote activity and the frequency in which it’s being added to policies, but the auction and private sale activity are strong. Why? Mainly because Barrett-Jackson offered a ton of them in Scottsdale this year (the 12-month count of cars coming to auction increased 33 percent versus when factoring in January results). Over the last year, average sale price is up 22 percent.

2005-08 Dodge Magnum
2008 Dodge Magnum SRT8, FCA
Median value for cars in #3 (Good) condition: $11,100

Around early 2017, auction prices for Magnums bottomed out, and the 12-month average sale price was $9682. Given the low price, these Dodges are flipping the script, possibly because of the rarity and appeal of a full-size family-hauler wagon with rear-wheel drive, available all-wheel drive, and up to 425 horsepower.

Insurance quote activity was flat until auction prices bottomed. Since January 2017 the 12-month sum of quotes increased 84 percent, while the average quoted price dropped 23 percent. Those are signs that more people are interested in the car because of its bargain value, but the buyers that are buying for collectibility and true value have yet to join the fray (and drive up prices).

Hagerty is starting to see people pay more at auction, though. Between February ’18 and Oct ’18 the average sale price at auction increased 50 percent, and the number of Magnums coming to auction is holding steady near the highest it has been (17 per year). As more and more people realize that Magnums are relatively affordable, look cool, and are very practical, expect demand to push prices further.

1983-92 VW Golf MKII
1983 Volkswagen Golf MKII, Volkswagen
Median value for cars in #3 (Good) condition: $4900
 
At a time when buyers are gravitating towards affordable, reliable, and fun cars from the ’80s and ’90s, the VW Golf is in a good position to appreciate. The positive data is rampant with quotes dominated by Millennials, who make up 56 percent of the requests—up 22 percent in just three months. That’s translating into more Golfs being added to policies, and that number is twice what it was this time last year. These increases have not yet translated into increased quoted or purchase values, which shows that buyers are still seeing them as bargain cars and trying to get in early. It shouldn’t be long before reality sets in and prices rise.

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